openigloo’s 2023 NYC Rental Market Predictions

the openigloo team

Reading time: 4 minutes

2022’s rental market was a rollercoaster. The year started off with a dramatic reversal of the rent discounts seen throughout the pandemic. Manhattan renters in particular navigated double-digit increases sometimes upward of 50% when their leases came up for renewal.

Heading into the summer, the usual seasonal uptick coupled with the influx of renters returning to the city resulted in unprecedented demand. As 2022 comes to a close, things have “normalized”. Rents are back or have surpassed pre-pandemic prices while demand has cooled heading into the winter months.

So what can we expect in 2023? Here are openigloo’s NYC 2023 rental predictions:

  1. Rent prices will remain flat.
  2. Regulatory discussions around Good Cause Eviction and Broker Fees.
  3. Upward pressure on pricing in the outer boroughs.
  4. Renters will demand transparency and stability when apartment hunting.
  5. New construction in 2023 will help relieve supply constraints into 2024.
Rent prices will remain flat.

1) Rent prices will remain flat in the 2023 NYC rental market

Since summer 2022, rents have stabilized. Even increases on lease renewals have remained sub-5% indicating there is no longer appetite for 20% increases. We expect this attitude to continue into 2023 with the usual seasonal upticks throughout the year.

Regulatory discussions around Good Cause Eviction and Broker Fees.

2) Regulatory discussions around Good Cause Eviction and Broker Fees.

2022 brought a lot of debate around Good Cause Eviction and broker fees. Headlines of 50% rent increases and some tenants being charged $20k broker fees on stabilized apartments caused upset. We predict that restrictions on rent increases and caps on broker fees will be a serious part of regulatory discussions in 2023.

Upward pressure on pricing in the outer boroughs.

3) Upward pressure on pricing in the outer boroughs.

In 2022, rent changes across the boroughs began to converge.  Rent increases in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens were the same, indicating that tenants are more open to looking outside of just Manhattan. Because the return to office movement in NYC has been slower to materialize, renters will continue to look to more spacious and affordable spaces in the out boroughs putting upward pressure on pricing.

November 2022 Renewal Breakdown By Increase
Renters will demand transparency and stability when apartment hunting.

4) Renters will demand transparency and stability when apartment hunting in 2023 NYC rental market.

2022 threw a shock into the rental market. Many tenants were left scrambling after being priced out of their units and felt frustrated by the lack of pricing transparency and stability of their housing. In 2023 renters will demand more transparency with respect to price increases, and management’s responsiveness before they sign a lease. Renters will not just take space, location, and price into consideration during their apartment hunt, but they will be looking for some peace of mind that they can renew their leases for multiple years at incremental and tolerable increases.

5) New construction will help relieve supply constraints into 2024.

2022 saw an increase in issued building permits as developers raced to secure their projects before the 421-a tax exemption was set to expire. This tax exemption was given to new rent-stabilized projects where a percentage of units were set aside for affordable housing lotteries. Permits covering 58,000+ new units were granted. While it’s unclear how many of these projects will start in 2023, any injection of new housing supply in New York will provide some relief for renters.

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